What’s driving the global RAM shortage? And why is it so expensive?

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The global memory market has entered a period of tight supply and elevated pricing — one that many believe will ripple through PCs, servers, storage, and mobile devices well into 2026 and beyond.

Unlike past memory cycles, this global memory shortage is being driven by a reallocation of manufacturing capacity toward higher-margin AI infrastructure memory (like HBM), limiting supply for conventional DRAM (DDR4/DDR5/LPDDR) and NAND drives used across mainstream devices.

For IT and procurement leaders, the takeaway is clear: waiting for prices to normalize is not a viable strategy — it’s a risky gamble.

What’s happening? Memory is getting scarcer — and more expensive

Industry watchers are reporting sharp increases in DRAM pricing and continued volatility as we head into 2026. One market report says DRAM prices have surged 171% YoY, with DDR5 spot prices quadrupling since September 2025 — a dramatic shift for a component that typically becomes cheaper over time.

On the contracts side, TrendForce forecasts conventional DRAM contract prices rising 55-60% QoQ in Q1 2026, with server DRAM up more than 60% QoQ as CSPs lock in capacity.

IDC similarly warns that the industry is experiencing an unprecedented memory chip shortage with effects that could persist well into 2027 and beyond.

Why is this happening? Let’s dive in.

1. AI infrastructure is consuming a huge amount of the memory supply

AI servers and enterprise AI environments require significantly more memory per system than typical consumer devices, drawing a growing share of global DRAM and NAND capacity into data centers supporting AI initiatives.

As AI demand accelerates, suppliers increasingly select the most profitable segments. This is leading a shift of manufacturing resources away from conventional DRAM (used in PCs, tablets, and phones) toward HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory) used in AI accelerators.

HBM consumes almost three times the wafer capacity of DDR5, which worsens scarcity.

2. Supply growth isn’t keeping pace

IDC expects 2026 supply growth below historical norms — about 16% YoY for DRAM and 17% YoY for NAND — despite rising demand. TrendForce adds that inventories are tightening and shipment growth is increasingly reliant on wafer output increases, amplifying price pressure. Bear in mind that three manufacturers control approximately 95% of global DRAM production, creating systemic vulnerability when supply tightens or priorities shift.

3. Geopolitics and trade fragmentation add friction

Export controls, tariffs, and retaliation targeting critical and/or rare earth materials can accelerate friendshoring, a trade practice in which supply chain leaders focus on political and economic allies and shift away from rivals. This practice complicates global supply chains, introducing additional uncertainty beyond supply-and-demand economics.

What’s the business impact of the global memory shortage?

Global RAM constraints create knock-on effects across budgeting, timelines, and operational resilience. The most common impact areas include:

1. End-user computing (laptops/desktops)

Higher device costs resulting from memory price increases can force compromises between performance standards and fleet affordability. Refresh cycles can be disrupted, leading to increased reliance on break/fix support, extended warranties, and device reuse programs. These challenges may contribute to lower-than-expected adoption of AI PCs.

But even standard configurations may become increasingly difficult to maintain, especially when preferred memory tiers (e.g., 16GB/32GB/64GB) experience availability gaps.

2. Data center and server environments

Project timelines can be delayed when memory becomes the primary component for server builds, expansions, or upgrades. Capacity planning becomes more uncertain, with longer lead times increasing the risk of under-provisioning. Memory unavailability can also reduce architectural flexibility for scaling RAM-intensive workloads, including VDI, databases, analytics, and AI inference.

3. Procurement, budgets, and forecasting

Budget volatility increases as pricing and availability shift between order and delivery. Memory sourcing becomes more complex, requiring alternates and substitutions. This isn’t just a timing dilemma. With high prices and severe availability constraints, even buying early offers no guarantees. IT leaders must shift from “buy now or wait” to “what’s essential, and how do we secure it?”

4. Business continuity and operational risk

IT downtime risk increases if replacement parts and spare systems aren’t available when needed. This leaves critical business initiatives vulnerable (refresh programs, office moves, new site openings, security-driven upgrades). IT teams spend more time navigating this, rather than on transformation or strategic work.

How to mitigate risk

The most effective mitigation strategies focus on planning earlier, reducing variability, and securing supply for what matters most.

1. Memory-dependent hardware should be part of advanced inventory

Identify projects where memory availability could delay delivery, such as refresh waves, server builds, or storage expansions. Shift procurement timelines up for critical projects rather than waiting until deployment windows are available. Prioritize deployments by segmenting users and workloads (e.g., frontline, knowledge worker, power user) to protect higher-memory configurations for roles and systems where performance is business-critical.

2. Standardize configurations and build flexibility into sourcing

Limit the number of approved memory configurations across your fleet and server estate. Identify some acceptable alternatives (capacity tiers, module types, and approved OEM options) before shortages force last-minute changes.

Avoid single points of failure by considering alternative suppliers, approved equivalents, or secondary distribution channels where feasible.

3. Maintain smart buffer stock and tighten governance

Keep a stock of high-failure or high-urgency components (spares, high-turn SKUs). Focus on coverage for critical services and peak deployment periods rather than overstocking everything. Create a shared view of refresh timelines, supply risks, and budget triggers, and draft a runbook to decide what to accelerate, what to delay, and what to standardize when the situation demands.

How SHI helps: Stay ahead of shortages with inventory hold and lifecycle planning

SHI’s guidance on our inventory hold approach is designed for this kind of environment: reserve hardware early, store it securely, and deploy on schedule so price spikes and lead-time surprises don’t derail your roadmap.

Our key capabilities include:

• Cloud and as-a-Service options: SHI can provide cloud-based alternatives — from Desktop as a Service for end-user compute to Infrastructure as a Service and Platform as a Service for workloads, and Network as a Service for connectivity — helping customers avoid hardware delays and keep projects moving without relying on constrained physical infrastructure.
• Strategic sourcing: Our partnerships with top manufacturers help secure inventory and minimize delays.
• Proactive planning and forecasting support: We review plans, help design flexible solutions, and support forecasting for continuity. At our Next-Gen Device Lab, our proprietary BenchSmart tool enables you to test the latest devices and experiment with their specifications with guidance from SHI’s engineers. You can also run targeted AI-relevant workload tests so you can make data-driven decisions about your current and future device fleets.
• Flexible financing: We offer options that help you secure hardware while managing budget and timing.
• Real-time supply chain insights and in-stock inventory: We help keep your infrastructure resilient amid projected price fluctuations in the coming years.
• SHI Intelligent Refresh Program (IRP): Use SHI’s IRP to identify the most efficient refresh paths, including refurbishment and redeployment opportunities, while securely managing mixed‑OEM environments amid supply constraints. IRP helps reduce dependence on scarce, memory-heavy configurations and extends device life safely through better inventory insight and security-aligned lifecycle planning.
• ITAM and FinOps optimizations: Leverage SHI’s ITAM, SAM, and FinOps capabilities to uncover cost‑reduction opportunities, rationalize applications, right‑size licensing, and free budget to counteract memory‑driven price increases. These services help organizations navigate shortages by maximizing existing investments, eliminating waste, and improving financial resilience.
• Asset recovery: Maximize the value of your existing end-of-life devices by extracting and reselling or redeploying valuable memory.

Careful planning reduces risk

It’s not the price spikes that catch organizations off guard — it’s the sudden drop in availability. Treating procurement as a transactional function leaves teams exposed when supply tightens. With ongoing structural memory constraints, the imperative now is to rethink architectures, refresh strategies, and sourcing models so future shortages have far less impact.

NEXT STEPS

With careful planning, your organization can successfully navigate the global memory shortage. SHI is here to help you:

• Implement immediate strategies to stabilize your environment.
• Build long‑term resilience across your device, data center, and cloud ecosystems.

Reach out to an SHI expert today to take control of hardware availability challenges and reduce risk in an uncertain landscape.